|
|
@@ -1,93 +1,102 @@
|
|
|
<div class="container has-fixed-header">
|
|
|
- <h2 class="my-5"> System Dynamic Modelling applied to Regional Foresight</h2>
|
|
|
- <p> System Dynamic Modelling has a long history. It was pioneered in the 1960s by Jay Forrester, an MIT computer
|
|
|
- scientist and systems engineer. In 1961 he published a foundational work on System Dynamics in a book entitled
|
|
|
- “Industrial Dynamics.” This was followed by “Urban Dynamics” in 1969 and “World Dynamics” in 1972.</p>
|
|
|
- <p> His work demonstrated that our usual “models” for how the world works, fail to capture important aspects of
|
|
|
- world dynamics, such as complex non-linear behaviours, which if left unchecked, could lead to the collapse of
|
|
|
- entire earth systems and an end to ever increasing growth and prosperity. </p>
|
|
|
- <p> The Club of Rome commissioned the system dynamics team at MIT to carry out a “Project on the Predicament of
|
|
|
- Mankind.” This team included experts from the US, India, Germany, Norway, Turkey, and Iran, with expertise in
|
|
|
- domains such as population, pollution, agriculture, and natural resources. A summary of its findings was
|
|
|
- published in 1972 by the Club of Rome with the title “Limits to Growth.”</p>
|
|
|
- <p>
|
|
|
- This remains a very important work on the sustainability of human activity at planetary level. It has inspired a
|
|
|
- great many actors who now work on sustainability and the challenge of living on an increasingly crowded planet
|
|
|
- with limited natural resources. The
|
|
|
- Club of Rome exists to this day and currently advises the cabinet of Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the
|
|
|
- European Commission, on long-term strategy related to sustainability and the achievement of high-level goals
|
|
|
- related to the climate, energy, and biodiversity.</p>
|
|
|
- <p> The great advantage of SDM modelling, is its ability to capture real world complexity, and illustrate the
|
|
|
- interactions between seemingly unrelated phenomena, in terms of feedback and in tells of how dynamics plays out
|
|
|
- over time; how inevitable consequences of our choices today play out sometimes quickly, and sometimes much more
|
|
|
- slowly over time. </p>
|
|
|
- <p>
|
|
|
- One of the goals of the POLIRURAL project has been to experiment with the use of SDM as a support for vision
|
|
|
- building and policy co-design at local government level, as part of a regional or sub-regional Foresight
|
|
|
- initiative. This presents many challenges for those who develop and implement SDM models which are rich enough
|
|
|
- to address the issues that local policy designers might need to address, yet simple enough for use by
|
|
|
- non-experts, the wide variety of stakeholders taking part in a typical local Foresight initiative.</p>
|
|
|
- <p> POLIRURAL made significant progress on all of these issues. It first had to identify precise tasks of a
|
|
|
- Foresight exercise, where SDM might be used. It had to develop a core model of rural regions and adapt this core
|
|
|
- model to the specificities of each region of the project. It had to implement each of these regional models
|
|
|
- using local data sets and make it available for use via an online tool, called the Policy Options Explorer.</p>
|
|
|
- <p> The general approach is based on what we call “the three-layer model” or 3LM, where the user is presented with
|
|
|
- </p>
|
|
|
- <ul>
|
|
|
- <li> the first layer consisting of a small set of input parameters, where the user can simulate different policy
|
|
|
- options by choosing a different set of input parameters.</li>
|
|
|
- <li> A middle layer which contains all of the complex dynamics of the local economy, its society, and its
|
|
|
- environment, and</li>
|
|
|
- <li> A third layer, which contains a small number of KPIs, reflecting the performance of the region. </li>
|
|
|
- </ul>
|
|
|
- <p> This tool allows a group of stakeholders individually, or working together, to compare the impact of different
|
|
|
- policy choices such as investments in new experiences or infrastructure projects intended to facilitate access
|
|
|
- for tourism, on performance indicators such as the number of visitors, nights stayed and jobs created, and see
|
|
|
- how these play out over time. </p>
|
|
|
- <p> By way of illustration, the 3LM for exploring tourism related policy options might look like this.</p>
|
|
|
- <div class="card col-6 mx-auto my-5 shadow">
|
|
|
- <img class="card-img-top" src="assets/fig/fig-01-sdm.png" />
|
|
|
- <div class="card-body">
|
|
|
- <p class="card-text">Sample 3LM for exploring tourism</p>
|
|
|
- </div>
|
|
|
+ <h2 class="my-5">System Dynamic Modelling applied to Regional Foresight</h2>
|
|
|
+ <p> System Dynamic Modelling has a long history. It was pioneered in the 1960s by Jay Forrester, an MIT computer
|
|
|
+ scientist and systems engineer. In 1961 he published a foundational work on System Dynamics in a book entitled
|
|
|
+ “Industrial Dynamics.” This was followed by “Urban Dynamics” in 1969 and “World Dynamics” in 1972.</p>
|
|
|
+ <p> His work demonstrated that our usual “models” for how the world works, fail to capture important aspects of
|
|
|
+ world dynamics, such as complex non-linear behaviours, which if left unchecked, could lead to the collapse of
|
|
|
+ entire earth systems and an end to ever increasing growth and prosperity. </p>
|
|
|
+ <p> The Club of Rome commissioned the system dynamics team at MIT to carry out a “Project on the Predicament of
|
|
|
+ Mankind.” This team included experts from the US, India, Germany, Norway, Turkey, and Iran, with expertise in
|
|
|
+ domains such as population, pollution, agriculture, and natural resources. A summary of its findings was
|
|
|
+ published in 1972 by the Club of Rome with the title “Limits to Growth.”</p>
|
|
|
+ <p>
|
|
|
+ This remains a very important work on the sustainability of human activity at planetary level. It has inspired a
|
|
|
+ great many actors who now work on sustainability and the challenge of living on an increasingly crowded planet
|
|
|
+ with limited natural resources. The
|
|
|
+ Club of Rome exists to this day and currently advises the cabinet of Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the
|
|
|
+ European Commission, on long-term strategy related to sustainability and the achievement of high-level goals
|
|
|
+ related to the climate, energy, and biodiversity.</p>
|
|
|
+ <p> The great advantage of SDM modelling, is its ability to capture real world complexity, and illustrate the
|
|
|
+ interactions between seemingly unrelated phenomena, in terms of feedback and in tells of how dynamics plays out
|
|
|
+ over time; how inevitable consequences of our choices today play out sometimes quickly, and sometimes much more
|
|
|
+ slowly over time. </p>
|
|
|
+ <p>
|
|
|
+ One of the goals of the POLIRURAL project has been to experiment with the use of SDM as a support for vision
|
|
|
+ building and policy co-design at local government level, as part of a regional or sub-regional Foresight
|
|
|
+ initiative. This presents many challenges for those who develop and implement SDM models which are rich enough
|
|
|
+ to address the issues that local policy designers might need to address, yet simple enough for use by
|
|
|
+ non-experts, the wide variety of stakeholders taking part in a typical local Foresight initiative.</p>
|
|
|
+ <p> POLIRURAL made significant progress on all of these issues. It first had to identify precise tasks of a
|
|
|
+ Foresight exercise, where SDM might be used. It had to develop a core model of rural regions and adapt this core
|
|
|
+ model to the specificities of each region of the project. It had to implement each of these regional models
|
|
|
+ using local data sets and make it available for use via an online tool, called the Policy Options Explorer.</p>
|
|
|
+ <p> The general approach is based on what we call “the three-layer model” or 3LM, where the user is presented with
|
|
|
+ </p>
|
|
|
+ <ul>
|
|
|
+ <li> the first layer consisting of a small set of input parameters, where the user can simulate different policy
|
|
|
+ options by choosing a different set of input parameters.</li>
|
|
|
+ <li> A middle layer which contains all of the complex dynamics of the local economy, its society, and its
|
|
|
+ environment, and</li>
|
|
|
+ <li> A third layer, which contains a small number of KPIs, reflecting the performance of the region. </li>
|
|
|
+ </ul>
|
|
|
+ <p> This tool allows a group of stakeholders individually, or working together, to compare the impact of different
|
|
|
+ policy choices such as investments in new experiences or infrastructure projects intended to facilitate access
|
|
|
+ for tourism, on performance indicators such as the number of visitors, nights stayed and jobs created, and see
|
|
|
+ how these play out over time. </p>
|
|
|
+ <p> By way of illustration, the 3LM for exploring tourism related policy options might look like this.</p>
|
|
|
+ <div class="card col-6 mx-auto my-5 shadow">
|
|
|
+ <img class="card-img-top" src="assets/fig/fig-01-sdm.png" />
|
|
|
+ <div class="card-body">
|
|
|
+ <p class="card-text">Sample 3LM for exploring tourism</p>
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
- <p> The model itself can be improved. Just putting this diagram on a slide and projecting it on a wall as support
|
|
|
- for a groupwork session, can already provide support to useful discussions on the subject. This possibility
|
|
|
- is described in some detail in project deliverable D5.5 listed below. The project has developed two interactive
|
|
|
- systems allowing groups of stakeholders to dig deeper into the exploration of policy options.
|
|
|
- <p> One of these is called the POE or Policy Options Explorer. Its interface looks something like this.</p>
|
|
|
- <div class="card col-6 mx-auto my-5 shadow">
|
|
|
- <img class="card-img-top" src="assets/fig/fig-02-sdm.png" />
|
|
|
- <div class="card-body">
|
|
|
- <p class="card-text">Screenshot from the Polirural Policy Option Explorer</p>
|
|
|
- </div>
|
|
|
+ </div>
|
|
|
+ <p> The model itself can be improved. Just putting this diagram on a slide and projecting it on a wall as support
|
|
|
+ for a groupwork session, can already provide support to useful discussions on the subject. This possibility
|
|
|
+ is described in some detail in project deliverable D5.5 listed below. The project has developed two interactive
|
|
|
+ systems allowing groups of stakeholders to dig deeper into the exploration of policy options.
|
|
|
+ <p> One of these is called the POE or Policy Options Explorer. Its interface looks something like this.</p>
|
|
|
+ <div class="card col-6 mx-auto my-5 shadow">
|
|
|
+ <img class="card-img-top" src="assets/fig/fig-02-sdm.png" />
|
|
|
+ <div class="card-body">
|
|
|
+ <p class="card-text">Screenshot from the Polirural Policy Option Explorer</p>
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
- <p> The other tool is called the RAE or Rural Attractiveness Explorer. It links the SDM models embedded in the POE
|
|
|
- to a simplified version of an Index of Rural Attractiveness developed by the project. The main purpose of
|
|
|
- this work is to explore the use of different ways for representing complex data and different types of user
|
|
|
- interfaces, with a view to understanding how best to present complex issues related to rural development and
|
|
|
- rural
|
|
|
- attractiveness to a general group of users, such as stakeholders taking part in local Foresight initiatives.</p>
|
|
|
- <p> To find out more the reader is invited to consult the following project resources: </p>
|
|
|
- <ul>
|
|
|
- <li><a href="">Article in Newsletter No. 10 entitled “Progress so far in the application of SDM to Regional
|
|
|
- Foresight.”</a>
|
|
|
- </li>
|
|
|
- <li><a href="https://polirural.eu/resources/newsletters/">Article in Newsletter No. 12 entitled “A Second Set of Experiments for Exploring the Application of SDM to
|
|
|
- Regional Foresight.”</a></li>
|
|
|
- <li> Training on SDM applied to Foresight (link to be added when MOOC 3 is completed)</li>
|
|
|
- <li>Project deliverable <a href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/D5.1..pdf">D5.1 “POLIRURAL Model ed 1”</a></li>
|
|
|
- <li>Project deliverable <a href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/D5.2..pdf">D5.2 “Polirural Model ed 2”</a></li>
|
|
|
- <li>Project deliverable <a href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/D5.3..pdf">D5.3 “Polirural Model ed 3”</a></li>
|
|
|
- <li>Project deliverable <a href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/D3.3..pdf">D3.3 “System Dynamics Tool – Technical Specifications”</a></li>
|
|
|
- <li>Project deliverable <a href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/D3.5..pdf">D3.5 “System Dynamics Tool – Initial Prototype”</a></li>
|
|
|
- <li>Project deliverable <a href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/D5.4-PoliRural-Model-4_final.pdf">D5.4 “Polirural Model ed 4”</a></li>
|
|
|
- <li>Project deliverable <a href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/D5.5-A-Dynamic-Rural-Development-Model_final.pdf">D5.5 “A Dynamic Rural Development Model”</a> </li>
|
|
|
- </ul>
|
|
|
-<p>Or continue to either:</p>
|
|
|
- <ul>
|
|
|
- <li><a routerLink="/policy-options-explorer">The Policy Options Explorer</a></li>
|
|
|
- <li><a routerLink="/rural-attractiveness-explorer">The Rural Attractiveness Explorer</a></li>
|
|
|
- </ul>
|
|
|
+ </div>
|
|
|
+ <p> The other tool is called the RAE or Rural Attractiveness Explorer. It links the SDM models embedded in the POE
|
|
|
+ to a simplified version of an Index of Rural Attractiveness developed by the project. The main purpose of
|
|
|
+ this work is to explore the use of different ways for representing complex data and different types of user
|
|
|
+ interfaces, with a view to understanding how best to present complex issues related to rural development and
|
|
|
+ rural
|
|
|
+ attractiveness to a general group of users, such as stakeholders taking part in local Foresight initiatives.</p>
|
|
|
+ <p> To find out more the reader is invited to consult the following project resources: </p>
|
|
|
+ <ul>
|
|
|
+ <li><a href="https://polirural.eu/newsletter/10/">Article in Newsletter No. 10 entitled “Progress so far in the application of SDM to Regional
|
|
|
+ Foresight.”</a>
|
|
|
+ </li>
|
|
|
+ <li><a href="https://polirural.eu/newsletter/12/">Article in Newsletter No. 12 entitled “A Second Set of
|
|
|
+ Experiments for Exploring the Application of SDM to Regional Foresight.”</a></li>
|
|
|
+ <li> Training on SDM applied to Foresight (link to be added when MOOC 3 is completed)</li>
|
|
|
+ <li>Project deliverable <a href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/D5.1..pdf">D5.1 “POLIRURAL Model ed
|
|
|
+ 1”</a></li>
|
|
|
+ <li>Project deliverable <a href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/D5.2..pdf">D5.2 “Polirural Model ed
|
|
|
+ 2”</a></li>
|
|
|
+ <li>Project deliverable <a href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/D5.3..pdf">D5.3 “Polirural Model ed
|
|
|
+ 3”</a></li>
|
|
|
+ <li>Project deliverable <a href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/D3.3..pdf">D3.3 “System Dynamics
|
|
|
+ Tool – Technical Specifications”</a></li>
|
|
|
+ <li>Project deliverable <a href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/D3.5..pdf">D3.5 “System Dynamics
|
|
|
+ Tool – Initial Prototype”</a></li>
|
|
|
+ <li>Project deliverable <a
|
|
|
+ href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/D5.4-PoliRural-Model-4_final.pdf">D5.4 “Polirural Model ed
|
|
|
+ 4”</a></li>
|
|
|
+ <li>Project deliverable <a
|
|
|
+ href="https://polirural.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/D5.5-A-Dynamic-Rural-Development-Model_final.pdf">D5.5 “A
|
|
|
+ Dynamic Rural Development Model”</a> </li>
|
|
|
+ </ul>
|
|
|
+ <p>Or continue to either:</p>
|
|
|
+ <ul>
|
|
|
+ <li><a routerLink="/policy-options-explorer">The Policy Options Explorer</a></li>
|
|
|
+ <li><a routerLink="/rural-attractiveness-explorer">The Rural Attractiveness Explorer</a></li>
|
|
|
+ </ul>
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
